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Scaling Laws for Hyperparameter Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Hyperparameter optimization is an important subfield of machine learning that focuses on tuning the hyperparameters of a chosen algorithm to achieve peak performance. Recently, there has been a stream of methods that tackle the issue of hyperparameter optimization, however, most of the methods do not exploit the dominant power law nature of learning curves for Bayesian optimization. In this work, we propose Deep Power Laws (DPL), an ensemble of neural network models conditioned to yield predictions that follow a power-law scaling pattern. Our method dynamically decides which configurations to pause and train incre-mentally by making use of gray-box evaluations.



Hierarchical topological clustering

Carpio, Ana, Duro, Gema

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Topological methods have the potential of exploring data clouds without making assumptions on their the structure. Here we propose a hierarchical topological clustering algorithm that can be implemented with any distance choice. The persistence of outliers and clusters of arbitrary shape is inferred from the resulting hierarchy. We demonstrate the potential of the algorithm on selected datasets in which outliers play relevant roles, consisting of images, medical and economic data. These methods can provide meaningful clusters in situations in which other techniques fail to do so.


Enhancing Node-Level Graph Domain Adaptation by Alleviating Local Dependency

Tai, Xinwei, Zou, Dongmian, Wang, Hongfei

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent years have witnessed significant advancements in machine learning methods on graphs. However, transferring knowledge effectively from one graph to another remains a critical challenge. This highlights the need for algorithms capable of applying information extracted from a source graph to an unlabeled target graph, a task known as unsupervised graph domain adaptation (GDA). One key difficulty in unsupervised GDA is conditional shift, which hinders transferability. In this paper, we show that conditional shift can be observed only if there exists local dependencies among node features. To support this claim, we perform a rigorous analysis and also further provide generalization bounds of GDA when dependent node features are modeled using markov chains. Guided by the theoretical findings, we propose to improve GDA by decorrelating node features, which can be specifically implemented through decorrelated GCN layers and graph transformer layers. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, showing not only substantial performance enhancements over baseline GDA methods but also clear visualizations of small intra-class distances in the learned representations. Our code is available at https://github.com/TechnologyAiGroup/DFT


Beyond the Hype: Comparing Lightweight and Deep Learning Models for Air Quality Forecasting

Gondal, Moazzam Umer, Qudous, Hamad ul, Farhan, Asma Ahmad

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution is essential for protecting public health and guiding mitigation policies. While Deep Learning (DL) and hybrid pipelines dominate recent research, their complexity and limited interpretability hinder operational use. This study investigates whether lightweight additive models -- Facebook Prophet (FBP) and NeuralProphet (NP) -- can deliver competitive forecasts for particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$, PM$_{10}$) in Beijing, China. Using multi-year pollutant and meteorological data, we applied systematic feature selection (correlation, mutual information, mRMR), leakage-safe scaling, and chronological data splits. Both models were trained with pollutant and precursor regressors, with NP additionally leveraging lagged dependencies. For context, two machine learning baselines (LSTM, LightGBM) and one traditional statistical model (SARIMAX) were also implemented. Performance was evaluated on a 7-day holdout using MAE, RMSE, and $R^2$. Results show that FBP consistently outperformed NP, SARIMAX, and the learning-based baselines, achieving test $R^2$ above 0.94 for both pollutants. These findings demonstrate that interpretable additive models remain competitive with both traditional and complex approaches, offering a practical balance of accuracy, transparency, and ease of deployment.


Democratic or Authoritarian? Probing a New Dimension of Political Biases in Large Language Models

Piedrahita, David Guzman, Strauss, Irene, Schölkopf, Bernhard, Mihalcea, Rada, Jin, Zhijing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into everyday life and information ecosystems, concerns about their implicit biases continue to persist. While prior work has primarily examined socio-demographic and left--right political dimensions, little attention has been paid to how LLMs align with broader geopolitical value systems, particularly the democracy--authoritarianism spectrum. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to assess such alignment, combining (1) the F-scale, a psychometric tool for measuring authoritarian tendencies, (2) FavScore, a newly introduced metric for evaluating model favorability toward world leaders, and (3) role-model probing to assess which figures are cited as general role-models by LLMs. We find that LLMs generally favor democratic values and leaders, but exhibit increased favorability toward authoritarian figures when prompted in Mandarin. Further, models are found to often cite authoritarian figures as role models, even outside explicit political contexts. These results shed light on ways LLMs may reflect and potentially reinforce global political ideologies, highlighting the importance of evaluating bias beyond conventional socio-political axes. Our code is available at: https://github.com/irenestrauss/Democratic-Authoritarian-Bias-LLMs.


The World Cup draw is here - this is how it will work

BBC News

Pots, quadrants, confederation constraints, group position grids... the 2026 World Cup finals draw on Friday is not going to be a straightforward affair. There's a lot to unpack so we're going to explain it as simply as we can. Luckily, Fifa will have a computer to do most of the heavy lifting and make sure everything runs smoothly. Though as Uefa found out in 2021, sometimes technology does go wrong. Let's hope there will be no gremlins in Washington once the draw ceremony kicks off.


Smart Traffic Signals: Comparing MARL and Fixed-Time Strategies

Mahato, Saahil

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban traffic congestion, particularly at intersections, significantly affects travel time, fuel consumption, and emissions. Traditional fixed-time signal control systems often lack the adaptability to effectively manage dynamic traffic patterns. This study explores the application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to optimize traffic signal coordination across multiple intersections within a simulated environment. A simulation was developed to model a network of interconnected intersections with randomly generated vehicle flows to reflect realistic traffic variability. A decentralized MARL controller was implemented in which each traffic signal operates as an autonomous agent, making decisions based on local observations and information from neighboring agents. Performance was evaluated against a baseline fixed-time controller using metrics such as average vehicle wait time and overall throughput. The MARL approach demonstrated statistically significant improvements, including reduced average waiting times and improved throughput. These findings suggest that MARL-based dynamic control strategies hold substantial promise to improve urban traffic management efficiency. More research is recommended to address the challenges of scalability and real-world implementation.


MIMM-X: Disentangling Spurious Correlations for Medical Image Analysis

Fay, Louisa, Reguigui, Hajer, Yang, Bin, Gatidis, Sergios, Küstner, Thomas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning models can excel on medical tasks, yet often experience spurious correlations, known as shortcut learning, leading to poor generalization in new environments. Particularly in medical imaging, where multiple spurious correlations can coexist, misclassifications can have severe consequences. We propose MIMM-X, a framework that disentangles causal features from multiple spurious correlations by minimizing their mutual information. It enables predictions based on true underlying causal relationships rather than dataset-specific shortcuts. We evaluate MIMM-X on three datasets (UK Biobank, NAKO, CheXpert) across two imaging modalities (MRI and X-ray). Results demonstrate that MIMM-X effectively mitigates shortcut learning of multiple spurious correlations.